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You can do a swatch, but if you don't want to the Knitting Police won't show up at your door. Since it's a toddler sweater, and the kids change size, exact fit may not be an issue.
I wouldn't try to knit tighter because you'd have to be conscious of knitting tighter all the time. If your mind wanders and you relax a bit, your going to have varying tension. I'd go with the smaller needles.
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IngridKH on Ravelry
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